Nasdaq 100 Forecast: U.S. Stocks Extend Record Highs
US Futures:
Dow Jones +0.17% S&P 500 +0.17% Nasdaq 100 +0.29%
European Markets:
FTSE 100 +0.15% DAX +0.13%
Stocks Hit Fresh Highs as Fed Officials Take Center Stage
U.S. stock futures point to a modestly higher open, extending the market’s record-breaking run as the government shutdown enters its seventh day. With little progress reported in Washington, investor attention turns toward remarks from several key Federal Reserve officials for clues on future policy moves.
Despite stretched valuations and reduced visibility due to the lack of federal data releases, traders remain optimistic. The Fed’s Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Governor Stephen Miran, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are scheduled to speak later today.
Markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, reflecting expectations that recent weak labor market data will push the Fed toward a more accommodative stance. Optimism surrounding AI innovation, corporate mergers, and easing monetary conditions is helping keep risk appetite elevated.
Corporate Highlights
- Gold Miners Rally: Gold prices surged to another all-time high, trading just below $4,000 per ounce, driven by persistent safe-haven demand and ongoing central bank purchases—particularly from China, which has increased its gold reserves for an 11th consecutive month.
- Tesla (TSLA): Shares are in focus ahead of the company’s upcoming Y-Sport Utility Vehicle reveal, aimed at the mid-range EV market segment.
- AMD (AMD): The chipmaker continues to climb after announcing a strategic partnership with OpenAI, providing processors in exchange for a 10% equity stake in the ChatGPT creator. Jefferies has upgraded AMD’s rating, citing stronger AI growth potential.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook
The Nasdaq 100 Index continues to trade within an ascending channel, reaching a record high of 25,060. However, with the RSI moving into overbought territory, short-term consolidation could follow before the next leg higher.
- Next Resistance: 25,500 → 26,000
- Support Levels: 24,500 (20-day SMA), 23,960 (August high)
Buyers are advised to avoid chasing highs and to monitor for potential pullbacks to key support zones before re-entering long positions.
FX Market: Dollar Extends Gains as Euro, Pound Slip
The U.S. Dollar (USD) strengthened across the board, buoyed by weakness in both the euro and the yen amid light trading volume during the shutdown.
- EUR/USD: Continues to slide as political uncertainty grips France following the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. Calls for a snap election are mounting, weighing further on the euro.
- GBP/USD: Edged lower after U.K. data showed a 0.3% decline in house prices for September, the first drop since May, fueling caution ahead of next month’s fiscal budget.
Oil Prices Steady Ahead of API Inventory Report
Crude oil prices remain stable after Monday’s gains, supported by OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected production increase of 137,000 barrels per day over the weekend. The limited hike pushed prices up roughly 1%, though expectations of a Q4 supply surplus are keeping the upside capped.
Investors now await the American Petroleum Institute (API)’s weekly inventory data for fresh insight into U.S. demand trends.
Key Takeaway
The global market mood remains cautiously optimistic, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, AI-driven earnings growth, and resilient investor sentiment. With gold approaching $4,000 and equities setting new highs, traders will be watching closely to see if the Fed’s tone supports continued risk-taking or triggers a near-term pullback.
