Fed’s Stephen Miran Says Tariffs Did Not Drive Inflation, Foresees Another Rate Cut in December

By IFCCI News Desk
Data verified and updated as of 16 October 2025

Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Miran remarked on Wednesday that tariffs have not been a key driver of recent inflationary pressures in the United States. His comments come amid renewed policy discussions following the central bank’s latest interest rate decision and intensifying debates over trade-related price impacts.

Speaking at a post-policy forum, Miran stated that “tariffs have had, at most, a limited and transitory influence on aggregate price levels,” distinguishing between trade-specific adjustments and broader inflationary dynamics driven by domestic demand and wage growth.

He emphasised that supply chain normalisation and moderating consumer demand have largely stabilised price trends, even as the Federal Reserve continues to evaluate the implications of geopolitical trade measures.

Miran further indicated that his personal forecasts project another 25-basis-point rate cut in December, contingent upon continued moderation in core inflation metrics and stable employment data. “Our baseline scenario still sees inflation trending toward the 2% objective by mid-2026,” he said.

Financial markets responded modestly, with Treasury yields easing slightly and the US dollar consolidating against major peers following his remarks. Analysts interpreted Miran’s statement as reinforcing a gradual, data-driven policy adjustment path, consistent with the Fed’s recent shift towards a more accommodative stance.

Market economists also noted that his tone aligns with broader expectations for measured easing through early 2026, as policymakers balance inflation control with the risks of overtightening in a slowing economy.

The Fed’s next policy meeting, scheduled for December, will likely determine whether the expected rate cut materialises, depending on the trajectory of labour market resilience and headline inflation data.